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What’s Behind Fall in US Yields? Fed Hope, Growth Fear

Ten-year Treasury yields declined more than 80 basis points from early November to mid-January — Bloomberg Economics’ new asset-price decomposition model attributes this mainly to market expectations of a less hawkish Federal Reserve and a looming recession. For the US central bank, the burden of controlling elevated inflation falls increasingly on hopes for favorable supply shocks. If that doesn’t happen, BE’s model suggests Chair Jerome Powell and fellow officials have more work to do to convince investors they’re serious about getting inflation back to their 2% target.