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Economists Place 70% Chance for US Recession in 2023

  • Bloomberg monthly survey shows 0.3% average GDP growth in 2023
  • Projections for PCE price index, core reduced only modestly

Economists say there is a 7-in-10 likelihood that the US economy will sink into a recession next year, slashing demand forecasts and trimming inflation projections in the wake of massive interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

The probability of a downturn in 2023 climbed from 65% odds in November and is more than double what it was six months ago, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists. The poll was conducted Dec. 12-16, with 38 economists responding about the chance of a recession.