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China’s Delayed Reopening May Cut Growth Rate by 1 Point: Oxford

A nearly empty street near the Central Business District in Beijing on Nov. 24.

A nearly empty street near the Central Business District in Beijing on Nov. 24.

Photographer: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images  

A longer-than-expected Covid Zero reopening may shave almost one percentage point off China’s gross domestic product growth next year, according to Oxford Economics Ltd.

If China pushes back its economic reopening to the first half of 2024, an anticipated recovery in private consumption will be delayed, Oxford Economics’ senior economist Louise Loo wrote in a Friday report. That may knock almost a full percentage point off the firm’s projected growth forecast of 4.2% for 2023.