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Economics

Fed Staff Warn Chance of Recession in Next Year Is Now Near 50%

  • Odds of downturn in US now ‘almost as likely as the baseline’
  • Slower consumer spending, more rate hikes among risks
The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC.

The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC.

Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg
Updated on

Federal Reserve staff economists briefed policymakers this month that the chances of a US recession in the next year had risen to almost 50% on risks of slower consumer spending, global economic risks and further interest-rate hikes.

The forecast, as detailed Wednesday in minutes of the Nov. 1-2 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, was the first such warning since the central bank began raising rates in March.