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Goldman Sees 10-Year Treasury Yield of 4% or More Through 2024

  • Firm forecasts no recession, above-target inflation in 2023
  • Bank’s economists also predict no Fed rate cuts next year
Bloomberg business news
Fixed Income ‘Good’, Equities ‘Troubled’ in 2023: Nuveen’s Nick

The US benchmark bond yield will trade at 4% or higher through at least the end of 2024 as the Federal Reserve averts an economic contraction in its fight against inflation, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“Our yield forecasts are based on that we see no recession and that we think inflation is still going to be above the Fed’s target,” Praveen Korapaty, chief rates strategist at Goldman Sachs, said by phone. It doesn’t seem likely “that in a non-recession scenario, with inflation above the Fed’s target, that the Fed would be easing” as the market are now pricing.