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JPMorgan Sees ‘Mild’ US Recession in 2023 on Fed’s Rate Hikes

  • Downturn could cost more than 1 million Americans their jobs
  • Fed seen cutting rates to 3.5% in 2024 but could go further
'Zero-Waste' Stores Are Helping Consumers Cut Back on Plastic
Photographer: Thomas Teal/Bloomberg

JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists projected the US will enter a “mild” recession next year thanks to interest-rate hikes that could cost more than 1 million Americans their jobs, and the Federal Reserve will pivot to cutting borrowing costs in 2024.

The Fed will probably raise its benchmark rate by 50 basis points in December and 25 basis points at each of the first two meetings in 2023 to reach a target range of 4.75% to 5% before pausing, economists Michael Feroli and Daniel Silver said in a report Wednesday.