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Vulnerable Yen’s Bigger Problem Now Importers Not Speculators

  • Japan is on course for record trade deficit this year
  • Speculative trading seen easing while importer impact weighs
Updated on

As Japanese authorities intervene to rescue the weakening yen from the clutches of foreign speculators, the bigger risk to further declines lies closer to home -- importers.

Japan’s need for foreign goods -- from natural gas to oil to foodstuffs -- creates constant demand for dollars that is insensitive to yield differentials, technical levels and expectations for monetary policy. Even if speculative traders stepped out of the market, trade flows are enough to continue to pressure the yen, especially amid reduced liquidity and high hedging costs, according to analysts.