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Outlier Poll Shows Bolsonaro Beating Lula in Brazil’s Presidential Runoff

  • Futura failed to capture Lula’s support in first-round vote
  • Surveys this week show Lula’s lead shrinking ahead of Oct. 30
Residents watch a television broadcast displaying vote counts during the first round presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro fought his way through to a run-off election against former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Oct. 30, with his leftist challenger garnering the bigger share of votes on Sunday but falling short of the first round win that some opinion polls had suggested he was headed for.
Residents watch a television broadcast displaying vote counts during the first round presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro fought his way through to a run-off election against former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Oct. 30, with his leftist challenger garnering the bigger share of votes on Sunday but falling short of the first round win that some opinion polls had suggested he was headed for.Photographer: Pedro Prado/Bloomberg

Futura Inteligencia, a pollster that has been an outlier in Brazil’s presidential election, is forecasting that incumbent Jair Bolsonaro will win the Oct. 30 runoff vote. 

The right-wing incumbent is seen gaining 46.9% of the votes, up from 46.5% a week ago, and surpassing leftist former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who now has 45.9%. The movements fell within the poll’s margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.