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Odds of US Recession Within Next Year Climb to 60%, Survey Shows

  • Probability of downturn increases from 50% odds in September
  • Economists surveyed slash job growth, spending estimates

Odds now favor that the US economy slipping into a recession within the next year, with economists expecting the labor market and demand will become casualties in the Federal Reserve’s inflation battle.

The probability of a downturn over the next 12 months stands at 60%, up from 50% odds in September and double what it was six months ago, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists. The latest poll was conducted Oct. 7-12, with 42 economists responding about the chance of a recession.