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Party Congress

China's Shot at Overtaking the US Economy Is at Stake in Xi's Next Term

Bloomberg Economics sees four long-term growth scenarios with different implications for the world

Xi Jinping

Xi Jinping

Photographer: Nicolas Asfouri/AFP/Getty Images

At the once-every-five-year Communist Party congress this month, where President Xi Jinping is set to secure rule until at least 2027, policies on the table will help determine how quickly China surpasses the US economy, or whether it ever will.  

Bloomberg Economics has sketched out four scenarios for China’s economy over the decades ahead, with a base case of 4.6% growth on average over the next decade. Their model suggests a growth rate above 5% over that time period — as predicted pre-pandemic — is now out of reach, due to the lasting impact of Covid Zero policies, a faster decline in fertility than previously expected and lower investment due to a gradually shrinking real estate sector.