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Bernstein Quants Say $7.6 Trillion US Bear Market Has More to Go

  • Markets vulnerable to hawkish Fed, growth jitters: strategists
  • Bernstein still optimistic about longer-term stock returns

US stocks are nursing losses of $7.6 trillion this year, but if history is any guide, they’re likely in for even more declines before the bear market is over, according to Sanford C. Bernstein quantitative strategists.

An analysis of the 15 major routs since 1937 shows peak-to-trough price drops averaged 28%, deeper than the current drawdown of 20%, the team led by analyst Ann Larson wrote in a note on Sept. 13. The average bear market lasted seven-to-eight months and included three rallies with returns of 9% and lasting about 22 days on average -- in line with this year, they said.