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China Growth to Average 4.5% This Decade, Oxford Economics says

  • China could overtake US economy’s size in 2033 at this pace
  • Forecast implies China to miss goal of doubling GDP by 2035

China’s gross domestic product will grow an average 4.5% over this decade, according to a new forecast by Oxford Economics, meaning China will take longer than other Asian economies such as Korea and Taiwan to catch-up with living standards in the developed world.

Annual growth will further slow to around 3% on average between 2030-40, according to the baseline forecast by lead economist Adam Slater. China’s actual economic growth could fall short of that baseline forecast due to worse-than-expected demographic challenges, possible decoupling from the US and allies, mishandling of financial risks or a prolonged real-estate slump, Oxford Economics said in a report.