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43% of Americans Say a Civil War Is At Least Somewhat Likely in Next 10 Years

Demonstrators clash with U.S. Capitol police officers outside the Capitol building in Washington, D.C. on Jan. 6, 2021.

Demonstrators clash with U.S. Capitol police officers outside the Capitol building in Washington, D.C. on Jan. 6, 2021.

Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg

More than two in five Americans say a US civil war is at least somewhat likely in the next decade, highlighting the deepening political divisions in the country heading into the midterms.

A recent poll by YouGov and The Economist found that 43% believe a civil war was either “very” or “somewhat likely.” People who identified as “strong Republicans” were the most likely to anticipate a conflict. One in three of total respondents said it’s not very or at all likely, and 22% are unsure.