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Midterm Misery for Biden as Key Economy Gauge Flags 30-Seat Loss

Soaring inflation has pushed the misery index, a measure with a track record of getting elections right, into dangerous territory for Democrats

Joe Biden speaks in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington, D.C., US, on July 28.

Joe Biden speaks in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington, D.C., US, on July 28.

Photographer: Oliver Contreras/Bloomberg

Whatever else is on Americans’ minds — and that’s a long list right now — the state of the economy looms large in any US election. That spells big trouble for Democrats in November’s midterm vote.

A new study by Bloomberg Economics takes one gauge with a knack of predicting ballot outcomes — the misery index, calculated by adding up the inflation and unemployment rates — and projects it forward through election day.