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Midterm Misery for Biden as Key Economy Gauge Flags 30-Seat Loss

Soaring inflation has pushed the misery index, a measure with a track record of getting elections right, into dangerous territory for Democrats

Joe Biden speaks in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington, D.C., US, on July 28. — Joe Biden speaks in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington, D.C., US, on July 28.
Photographer: Oliver Contreras/Bloomberg

By

Steven T. Dennis, and

July 30, 2022, 11:15 AM UTC

Whatever else is on Americans’ minds — and that’s a long list right now — the state of the economy looms large in any US election. That spells big trouble for Democrats in November’s midterm vote.

A new study by Bloomberg Economics takes one gauge with a knack of predicting ballot outcomes — the misery index, calculated by adding up the inflation and unemployment rates — and projects it forward through election day.