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This Dallas Fed Economic Survey Is the Perfect Snapshot of the Economy Right Now

We’re either going into a recession or things are booming.

Utility poles in Dallas, Texas, US, on Tuesday, June 21, 2022.

Utility poles in Dallas, Texas, US, on Tuesday, June 21, 2022.

Photographer: Shelby Tauber/Bloomberg

On Thursday we’re going to get the first reading of second-quarter GDP in the US, and it’s possible that we’re going to see a second consecutive quarter of negative growth.

To be clear, that isn’t the consensus expectation. Economists are calling for a modestly positive reading of 0.4% annualized growth quarter-on-quarter. But if we do get a minus sign, then there’s going to be a huge public argument about whether that should be declared a recession or not.