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Markets

Odds of US Recession Within Next Year Near 50%, Survey Shows

  • Probability of downturn up sharply from 30% odds in June
  • Growth estimates were cut while inflation projections rose
Pedestrians carry shopping bags in San Francisco, California, US.

Pedestrians carry shopping bags in San Francisco, California, US.

Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

Odds are now close to even that the US economy will slip into a recession within the next year as persistent and rapid inflation emboldens the Federal Reserve to pursue larger interest-rate hikes.

The probability of a downturn over the next 12 months stands at 47.5%, up sharply from 30% odds in June, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists. In March, those odds were just 20%. The latest survey was conducted July 8-14, with 34 economists responding about the chances of recession.