Nearly a month after US government bond yields began a retreat from multiyear highs, fueled by creeping doubt the economy can stomach the Federal Reserve’s anti-inflationary medicine, the only certainty many investors are willing to commit to is that trading the market will remain perilous.
Treasury yields remain well off their mid-June peaks despite having ended the week higher, spurred Friday by resilient jobs data. But they’ve logged many of their biggest intraday swings of the year in the interim, and gauges of bond-market volatility have continued to climb. And next week brings the Consumer Price Index, the main US inflation gauge. Hotter-than-expected CPI data paved the way for last month’s yield peaks, which priced in the Fed’s subsequent shift to bigger rate increases.