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Economics

China Data Show Economy Shrinking in Challenge to Xi’s Target

  • Government likely to report GDP expansion in second quarter
  • But high-frequency indicators suggest economy contracted
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China's Growth Target 'Extremely Hard' to Achieve, S&P Says

Signs are mounting that China’s economy shrank in the second quarter for the first time since 2020, placing the nation’s official statistics under fresh scrutiny as analysts bet the government will avoid acknowledging that slump.

The consensus forecast from economists in a Bloomberg survey is that the government will next week report gross domestic product grew about 1.5% in the second quarter from a year earlier. Yet high-frequency data for June and losses in the previous two months suggest the economy contracted over that period due to the lingering effects of lockdowns in dozens of cities.