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New York Fed Model Shows Chance of ‘Soft Landing’ At Just 10%

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Fed Hikes 75 Basis Points, Stock Rout Takes Breather

An economic model maintained by Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists suggests the chance of achieving a “soft landing” for the US economy is just 10%.

“According to the model, the probability of a soft landing -- defined as four-quarter GDP growth staying positive over the next ten quarters -- is only about 10%,” the economists wrote in a blog post published Friday on the bank’s website. “Conversely, the chances of a hard landing -- defined to include at least one quarter in the next ten in which four-quarter GDP growth dips below -1%, as occurred during the 1990 recession -- are about 80%.”