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The Big Take

US Faces a Fed-Triggered Recession That May Cost Biden a Second Term

Rate hikes to counter inflation lift risk of a downturn to 72% in Bloomberg Economics models — heralding trouble for the White House

Joe Biden and Jerome Powell. The Fed delivered its biggest interest-rate hike in almost three decades on June 15. 

Joe Biden and Jerome Powell. The Fed delivered its biggest interest-rate hike in almost three decades on June 15. 

Credit: Bloomberg

Soaring prices are hurting Americans. The cure is going to hurt, too. It may take a recession to stamp out inflation -- and it’s likely to happen on President Joe Biden’s watch.

A downturn by the start of 2024, barely even on the radar just a few months ago, is now close to a three-in-four probability, according to the latest estimates by Bloomberg Economics.