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US Recession Odds Within the Next Year Now 30%, Survey Shows

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US Inflation: What Economists and Strategists See

The odds of a US recession within the next year are steadily rising.

The probability of a recession over the next 12 months is now 30%, the highest since 2020, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists. That’s up slightly from 27.5% in April and double the odds economists predicted just three months ago. The survey was conducted May 6-11 and included responses from 37 economists.