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Europe Inflation Seen Surpassing U.S. for First Time in a Decade

  • European inflation swap rate over next decade trades above 3%
  • Ukraine war has fanned price pressures and energy disruptions
Customers wait to be served at a fresh produce stall in a market in Madrid.

Customers wait to be served at a fresh produce stall in a market in Madrid.

Photographer: Emilio Parra Doiztua/Bloomberg

For the first time in over a decade, traders are anticipating faster inflation in Europe than the U.S. as the war in Ukraine drives up energy prices.   

Markets are expecting euro-area inflation of 3.02% over the next decade, compared with 3.00% for the U.S., according to swap contracts linked to consumer prices. The last time these rates flipped was in 2009 during the global financial crisis.