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Twitter-Musk Deal Spread Widens as Traders Fret Over a Collapse

  • Discount to cash offer has doubled to show 80% odds of closing
  • Arbs cautious on Musk unpredictability, financing, regulators
Tweets by Elon Musk.

Tweets by Elon Musk.

Photographer: Scott Olson/Getty Images
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The gap between Twitter Inc.’s stock price and what Elon Musk is offering to pay for the company has widened since the deal was announced on Monday, as merger investors fret over the billionaire’s financing plan and his commitment to complete the $44 billion transaction.

The deal spread rose to $5.09 per share by the close on Thursday after touching as much as $6.24 in early trading. On Monday, the gap was $2.50, signaling that investors are increasingly nervous about the take-private deal. The market is pricing in a roughly 80% probability of it being completed, said Aaron Glick, a merger-arb specialist at Cowen & Co.