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Goldman Sachs Sees U.S. Recession Odds at 35% in Next Two Years

  • Jan Hatzius says Fed faces ‘hard path to a soft landing’
  • Big declines in jobs-workers gap have usually meant recessions
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Goldman Sees 35% U.S. Recession Risk in Next Two Years

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History suggests that the Federal Reserve will face a difficult task in tightening monetary policy enough to cool inflation without causing a U.S. recession, with the odds of a contraction at about 35% over the next two years, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.