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Powell Says Look at Short-Term Treasury Yield Curve for Recession Risk

  • Fed chair pointed to spread between 3-month, 18-month forward
  • Treasury 5-to-30-year yield spread is at the least since 2007
Bloomberg business news
Powell Says Fed Will Raise Rates Faster If Necessary

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday weighed in on a major topic of debate in the bond market: where to look to determine the chances for a U.S. recession.

Some investors have been calling attention to a rapidly shrinking spread between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields to sound the alarm on a looming economic downturn. But Powell preferred a different measure of the yield curve that isn’t yet flashing a warning sign.