Skip to content

Brace for More Russian Plot Twists, Geopolitical Strategist Says

  • Clocktower’s Marko Papic: ‘I give Putin 12 months’ or less
  • ‘When leaders ignore material constraints, they get punished’
Mark Papic
Mark PapicSource: Clocktower Group

When assessing what a political leader is going to do, Marko Papic doesn’t give much weight to the person’s desires. Rather, he looks at what he calls “material constraints.” In other words, what factors will limit the leader’s ability to get what he or she wants.

To Papic, chief strategist at hedge-fund seeding firm Clocktower Group, Russia’s Vladimir Putin is ignoring material constraints in his assault on Ukraine. And ultimately, he says, that could lead to the leader’s downfall.