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Goldman Team Sees S&P Down 6% if Ukraine Conflict Worsens

  • Strategists see further drop for global equities, yields
  • Team bases analysis on sensitivity to the Russian ruble
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“Outright conflict” in Ukraine coupled with “punitive sanctions” could push U.S. stocks another 6% lower from Friday’s close, with worse losses seen in Europe and Japan, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

With geopolitical upheaval notoriously hard to trade, Goldman strategists are basing their calculations on the recent sensitivity of global assets to the ruble, according to a note Monday. Worst-case scenario, a 10% decline in the Russian currency would push oil up 13% and cause a 27-basis-point decline in benchmark Treasury yields, they said.