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Coal Prices Forecast to Surge Again if Indonesia Halts Exports

  • Curbs by key exporter would tighten market: Morgan Stanley
  • Benchmark Newcastle coal jumped to record in October

Any move by top thermal coal exporter Indonesia to temporarily halt shipments could send global benchmark prices surging again after the fuel notched a record in October.

There’s “meaningful upside” to a forecast that high-quality thermal coal at Australia’s Newcastle port will average $140 a ton in the first quarter if the ban is put in place, Morgan Stanley analysts including Marius van Straaten wrote in a note dated Monday.