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Only Massive U.S. Jobs Miss Will Derail November Taper Bets

  • Fed wagers won’t change in case of a beat or small miss
  • Economists see half a million jobs added in September
Brightline And Siemens Mobility Hold Media Tour Of Facilities
Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
Updated on

The number to watch for on Friday’s U.S. payrolls report is 200,000.

Anything below that would prompt investors to question the health of the economy and send Treasury yields lower in the near term, according to all eight strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. Such a scenario would boost bets for a delay or a slower pace of Federal Reserve tapering. Yet, the figure is less than half of the median of economists’ estimates at 500,000.