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Short Bets in $14 Billion Treasury ETF Say Yield Calm Will Break

  • TLT’s short interest rises to highest level in four years
  • Bonds in ‘holding pattern’ but volatility may loom, RBA says

As Treasury yields stall near their prepandemic highs, investors are wagering that the tranquility will be short-lived.

Short interest in the $14 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund (ticker TLT) has climbed to about one-fifth of the shares outstanding, the highest since early 2017, according to data from IHS Markit Ltd. Bearish bets have risen from 7% at the start of 2021 amid the fund’s 13% year-to-date drop.