It is heresy in economic circles nowadays to talk about raising interest rates. With the virus still raging and economies still sputtering, rates need to be held at record lows for a long, long time, according to consensus thinking all over the globe.
Except in Brazil. Traders there are frantically driving up interest-rate futures in anticipation that policy makers will lift the 2% benchmark rate next month. Encouraged by debate among central bankers themselves about how soon to tighten monetary policy, traders have determined that at a minimum the Selic rate will be raised by a quarter point in March, and maybe even as much as a half point.