Wall Street’s biggest banks are predicting the coronavirus-hit world economy will crawl through the early days of 2021 before bouncing back as vaccines and more fiscal stimulus flow into it.
After a year which saw the unanticipated shock of the deepest recession since the Great Depression, economists are bracing for a shaky start to the new year as 2020 ends with a spike in infections and further rounds of restrictions.
The most upbeat are the analysts at Morgan Stanley, who predict an expansion of 6.4% in the coming year and maintain their call for a V-shaped recovery. Less confident are the economists at Citigroup Inc., who predict growth of 5%.
Both would be dramatic improvements on the 4.4% contraction the International Monetary Fund has penciled in for 2020.