When the U.S. Vote Looks This One-Sided, Contrarian Bets Pay
- Aberdeen’s Athey is buying Treasuries and is long the dollar
- JPMorgan’s risk scenario is a contested vote on Nov. 3
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The polls are saying it and the market is pricing it: President Donald Trump is going to lose the U.S. election next month and his Republican Party may even fail to keep the Senate.
But traders have been burned betting the house on one side before, such as in the last U.S. presidential election in 2016 and the Brexit referendum the same year. The risk that the consensus for a Democratic sweep of power this time doesn’t play out, or the result being contested, is leading some to take no chances with less than two weeks until the Nov. 3 vote.