If the Polls Are Wrong You Want to Be Hedged: Wall Street Votes
- Markets pricing in expectations that Biden will defeat Trump
- JPMorgan eyes options that wager on a stronger greenback
Traders may want to think about taking out some insurance, just in case the polls are wrong again.
Global financial markets are increasingly pricing in the idea that Democratic challenger Joe Biden will not only unseat President Donald Trump at next month’s U.S. election, but that he will have a friendly Congress as well. U.S. stocks and Treasury yields have risen on the prospect that a Biden administration will usher in a bigger fiscal stimulus, while the dollar has fallen and measures of implied market turbulence -- aided in part by the support of the U.S. central bank -- have been subdued. Yet while opinion polls both nationally and in critical swing states have Biden leading, the memory of 2016’s shock presidential election result stands as a warning.