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Global Economic Output Won’t Hit Pre-Crisis Level Until Mid-2021

Slow Economic Recovery

Hopes for a “V-shaped” recovery from the virus recession required a number of conditions to be met: The virus needed to come under control in this quarter, enabling lockdowns to be removed. Stimulus needed to move quickly into place, replacing lost income and preventing a scarring recession. For many major economies, those conditions have not been met. Bloomberg Economics’ June baseline forecast sees global economic output contracting 4.7% this year, with gross domestic product not returning to its pre-pandemic peak until mid-2021. In a more pessimistic scenario -- the pandemic runs longer, recession scars slow the recovery, the ceiling on activity from residual social distancing is lower -- global GDP contracts 6.7% in 2020 and output only recovers to pre-crisis levels at the end of next year.