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Economists War-Game Pandemic Threat to Global Growth

  • Trade, tourism vulnerable to disruption if pandemic declared
  • WHO says ‘deeply’ concerned but outbreak isn’t yet a pandemic
A commuter, wearing a protective face mask, exits the ticket barriers the Duomo station of the Milan Metro on Feb. 24.
A commuter, wearing a protective face mask, exits the ticket barriers the Duomo station of the Milan Metro on Feb. 24.Photographer: Francesca Volpi/Bloomberg
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The worrying prospect that the coronavirus outbreak could become the first truly disruptive pandemic of the globalization era is renewing doubts over the stability of the world economy.

With the death toll approaching 3,000, over 80,000 cases officially recorded and an outbreak in Italy now shutting down the richest chunk of its economy, some economists are beginning to war game what an untethered outbreak could mean for global growth.