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Big Economic Reads: Coronavirus Shakes Global Growth Outlook

Big Economic Reads: Coronavirus Shakes Global Growth Outlook

  • Weekly review of stories and analysis from Bloomberg Economics
  • Fed gives glimpse of inflation strategy as BOE holds rates
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Photographer: SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg

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The outbreak of the deadly coronavirus forced economists to ponder their call for the world economy to stabilize in 2020 as they began considering the risk it posed to supply chains and monetary policy.

Meantime, the Federal Reserve gave fresh insight into its view of inflation and the Bank of England delivered a downbeat assessment on the U.K.’s outlook.

Such topics are among the collection of this week’s analysis, scoops and enterprise from Bloomberg Economics:

Enda Curran and Katia Dmitrieva showed how economists were adapting their forecasts to the spreading virus as did the team from Bloomberg Economics. Malcolm Scott detailed what it might mean for government policy and James Mayger weighed in on implications for the trade deal with the U.S. Bloomberg’s Stephanomics podcast also discussed the risks.

Coronavirus may drag GDP to 4.5% in the first quarter

While the Fed left interest rates unchanged, Chris Condon, Rich Miller and Matthew Boesler detailed why it may be changing tack in its effort to spur inflation. In the U.K., the Bank of England kept its benchmark on hold in Governor Mark Carney’s final meeting, waiting for more evidence of an economic rebound before supporting it with a cut. Meanwhile, emerging-market central banks continued reducing rates.

Rate-Reduction Club

Ukraine’s central bank joins emerging-market peers in cutting interest rates

Source: Bloomberg

Note: Map shows institutions with rate decisions since the start of 2020

Prinesha Naidoo detailed some of the debates swirling in South Africa over its economic future, including trade relations with the U.S.

Preferential Trade

South Africa's agriculture exporters made the most of duty-free access to the U.S in 2018.

Source: Tralac Trade Law Centre, U.S International Trade Commission

Bloomberg reporters Vrishti Beniwal, Rahul Satija, Dhwani Pandya and Anirban Nag took a long lens to look at how India’s economy suddenly started crumbling and why.

Slow Expansion

India’s economy seen growing at slowest pace since 2009

Source: Statistics Ministry

Note: Bars represent financial year to March; FY2020 is an estimate

Shelly Hagan identified a trend in Canada which shows men have been particular winners from a hot labor market, a divergence from the U.S. where women are eclipsing men.

Men’s Work

Males make up majority of job holders in Canada versus females in U.S.

Source: Statistics Canada Labor Force Survey- employees, U.S. Payroll Data

The latest edition of Bloomberg Markets Magazine is focused on trade. Here are some of the articles that will feature.