These countries don’t have a nationwide vote scheduled in 2020, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be one.
Who’s in trouble?
Chancellor Angela Merkel
Her Christian Democratic Union has been losing support in national and regional elections. Merkel’s chosen successor as party chief, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, has taken much of the blame. Moreover, Merkel may not be in the best of health: She’s been seen uncontrollably shaking at multiple public events.
What would have to happen to trigger an election?
Merkel has said she’s in fine shape, but if she isn’t—or if the Social Democratic Party, which has been plumbing new depths in the polls, decides to pull out of her coalition government—she could still be forced to leave before her term ends in 2021.
Odds: 7 to 1