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Goldman Says Trump’s Tweets Have Hit Market Pricing for the Fed

  • Trade tweets estimated to have pulled down implied rates
  • Tweets criticizing Fed have limited impact, analysis found
Federal Reserve Exterior As Fed Looks Locked In For Quarter-Point Cut
Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

President Donald Trump’s tweets on trade have had a sometimes-sizable impact on market expectations for Federal Reserve policy, while his posts criticizing the Fed have had little impact, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysis.

“Our interpretation of these findings is that markets believe the president primarily affects Fed policy indirectly by influencing the macroeconomic outlook, with at most a limited perceived role for tweets about the Fed,” Goldman economist Ronnie Walker wrote in a note Monday.