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China Seen Heading for Sub-6% Economic Growth as Tariffs Soar

  • Growing number see 2020 GDP growth below 6% amid trade war
  • Bank of America sees government falling behind on policy
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China Expected to Add Stimulus, Moody's Analytics Says
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Economists are downgrading their forecasts for economic growth in China again, to below a level seen as necessary for the Communist Party to meet its own goals in time for its centenary in 2021.

Oxford Economics, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and Bloomberg Economics on Tuesday all cut their forecasts for gross domestic product growth in 2020 to below 6% as a result of increasing risks from the tariff war with the U.S. UBS Group AG also cut their estimate on Tuesday, although they’ve been estimating sub-6% expansion since mid-August. In addition, Bank of America’s Helen Qiao and others are warning that the government’s current approach to stimulus is proving insufficient.