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‘I Would Be Shocked’: $14 Billion Illinois Bond Fight a Longshot

  • Prices show ‘expectation that, ultimately, the suit will fail’
  • Yields on disputed Illinois bonds only about 0.3% above others
Sunrise in Chicago, Illinois.

Sunrise in Chicago, Illinois.

Photographer: NICOLAS NICOLAS MESSYASZ/Sipa via AP Images

The municipal-bond market is putting long odds on a think-tank chief’s bid to have $14 billion of Illinois debt tossed out in court.

While the yields on some of the challenged state bonds jumped by more than a third of a percentage point in the weeks after the suit was filed on July 1, they’ve since reversed course amid the market’s broader rally, indicating little risk that their legal status will be cast into doubt. Taxable Illinois debt due in 2033 is now yielding 4.46%, only about 0.3 percentage point more than bonds the state issued in April that aren’t being questioned by the suit.