Skip to content
Subscriber Only

Argentina’s Massive Sell-Off Had a 0.006% Chance of Happening

  • Bond sell-off was rare event with low probability of recurring
  • Any stability in peso may reveal juicy risk-reward equation

Photographer: Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images

Updated on

There was a 99.994% probability that an event like Monday’s sell-off in Argentina wouldn’t happen.

But it did. And it served to underscore the need for investors to protect against extreme events that look very unlikely but can have outsize impact if they do occur.