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Pound Seen Hitting 34-Year Low If Johnson Drags U.K. to No-Deal

  • Survey respondents now see a 30% chance of a chaotic exit
  • That is seen pushing the pound to $1.10, lowest since 1985
Longest Pound Slide Since 2000 Shows Brexit Respite All But Over
Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg

The pound will tumble to the lowest level since 1985 if the U.K. leaves the European Union without a deal, a prospect that looks more likely now than six months ago, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts.

There is now a 30% chance that Britain will exit the bloc in October without a divorce agreement, the poll of 13 banks showed. That’s more than three times the level from a similar survey in February. Such an outcome would drive down sterling by more than 9% to $1.10, a level not seen in 34 years, according to the median response.