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OPEC to Be Squeezed by U.S. Shale Until Mid-2020s, IEA Says

  • Declines in Iran, Venezuela to reduce cartel’s output capacity
  • Demand for group’s crude stays below pre-cuts level until 2024
A Shale-Oil Boomtown As Oil Bust Proves To Be Good
Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
Updated on

OPEC’s loss of market power to what was once its biggest customer will continue until the middle of the next decade as U.S. shale oil thrives.

By 2024, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ capacity to pump crude will actually shrink because of declines in Iran and Venezuela, according to the International Energy Agency. As rivals grow, the amount of oil the world needs from the cartel each year won’t recover to pre-2016 levels -- before OPEC started cutting production -- throughout the period.