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U.S. Recession Risk Hits Six-Year High Amid Trade War, Shutdown

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Aberdeen’s James Athey sees a "reflexive" U.S. recession whereby "markets do the work for the economy."Source: Bloomberg

Economists put the risk of a U.S. recession at the highest in more than six years amid mounting dangers from financial markets, a trade war with China and the federal-government shutdown.

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg over the past week see a median 25 percent chance of a slump in the next 12 months, up from 20 percent in the December survey. The Federal Reserve is now projected to keep interest rates steady in the first quarter, instead of raising them, before two increases total this year -- down from four moves in 2018.