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Fed Says Texas Job Growth Will Take Hit If the Oil Rout Drags On

  • Effect on jobs typically lags oil-price moves by six months
  • U.S. crude heading for biggest quarterly drop since 2014
Updated on

Job growth in the Lone Star State will likely weaken in the first half of 2019 if oil prices remain at current levels, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Changes in Texas job growth tend to lag big moves in the crude price by about six months, according to a report Wednesday. With the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude falling to about $57 a barrel in November, the state’s job growth will probably show a hit in the second quarter, the Dallas Fed said. Texas’ unemployment rate was 3.7 percent in both October and November, the lowest level since the Labor Department data series began in 1976.