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Don't Bet on China's Yuan Falling Past 7 This Year, Survey Shows

  • Only three of 18 respondents expect break of key level in 2018
  • Trade tension, looser policy may push currency lower next year
Currency Exchanges As China Steps Up Yuan Intervention

Photographer: Xaume Olleros/Bloomberg

Updated on

China is unlikely to let the yuan weaken past the key psychological level of 7 per dollar any time soon, according to market observers.

Just three of 18 traders and analysts surveyed Wednesday and Thursday said the Chinese currency will breach that milestone in 2018, though a majority see it happening by the middle of next year. Falling beyond 7 for the first time in a decade would further strain relations with the U.S. and spur capital outflows, some respondents said. The yuan fell 0.12 percent to 6.9227 per dollar as of 5:46 p.m. in Shanghai on Monday.