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Two-Thirds of U.S. Business Economists See Recession by End-2020

  • Trade policy seen as main risk to growth in NABE survey
  • Respondents expect Fed to stick to planned path of rate hikes
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Low Risk of U.S. Recession, Renaissance Macro's Dutta Says

Two-thirds of business economists in the U.S. expect a recession to begin by the end of 2020, while a plurality of respondents say trade policy is the greatest risk to the expansion, according to a new survey.

About 10 percent see the next contraction starting in 2019, 56 percent say 2020 and 33 percent said 2021 or later, according to the Aug. 28-Sept. 17 poll of 51 forecasters issued by the National Association for Business Economics on Monday.