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Who’s Overshooting the Most in Emerging Markets

The Turkish lira has fallen further than necessary to close the country’s wide current account deficit: That conclusion, based on Bloomberg Economics’ analysis of the relationship between exchange rate movements and trade flows, suggests the sell off has been extended by fear. Things look different for Argentina and South Africa, where currencies probably need to fall further to close deficits. Brazil’s challenge is not primarily its current account deficit, but to the extent that is a factor, the drop in the real is already more than enough to solve it.