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Asia Stocks Pricing in 20% Chance of Serious Trade War, UBS Says

  • More negative outcome far from being priced into equities: UBS
  • Tension ramped up this week as U.S. lifted proposed tariffs
Views Of The Financial District As Global Funds Pull $2.1b From Thai Bonds and Equities On Increased Instability
Photographer: Dario Pignatelli/Bloomberg

Asian stock markets are pricing in the probability of a more serious trade dispute causing an earnings recession at about one in five, according to a UBS Group AG study.

This week’s escalation in tension between the U.S. and China, which led to declines in equities on Monday and Tuesday, has seen equity investors increase their expectations of that becoming a reality by about 9 percent, strategists including Niall MacLeod wrote in a report. A full fledged trade war could see stocks in Asia tumble 30 percent from this year’s peak, they said.